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Thursday 11 October 2012

Strong Volatility - Technical Analysis

Our Team is waiting for the market to be less risky, we are monitoring the main currency pairs trends.

Yesterday we had a rather eventful day on the markets, with sharp increases in volatility that have not managed to take a clear direction to the markets. This means that we must pay attention to the technical levels individually on each instrument we are going to analyze, without using the correlations from the operational point of view, but only at the level of analysis. The indicator “Speculative Sentiment Index” is signaling light downsizing at the level of mismatches on the long side of American dollars with markets that actually are in stages of congestion of short period, which may lead to increased volatility when trading in Europe.

Meaningful data on the U.S. trade balance are expected, but they should not trigger large movements in the markets due the discount large deficit in the US market.



EUR/USD
The euro was very volatile yesterday, with attempts to rise in the morning, but was unable to overcome the 1.2910 area, referred to as a strong resistance. The good risk reward offered on possible sales has meant that we could set operations with short target 1.2835 areas, which has been slightly exceeded, without reaching 1.2805, the natural level of evolution of the U.S. dollar down euro taken Friday afternoon. The levels of resistance, is found to lie still in the area 1.2890 (static points) and 1.2910. Also today it will be difficult to operate in bullish breakout, which should be used as a defensive strategy in case of sale on the elements, taking into account that only 1.2910 after breaking strength take up to 1.2940. Upon descending, the objectives are given by figure 1.28.

USD/JPY
Breaking levels for dynamic channel narrowing of volatility that we have seen the dollar yen, reaching 78.00, which is now to be the most important level to follow for the day. Between 78.20 and 78.25 passed all points of resistance, is a price range that may contain a resumption of foreign exchange and provide excellent opportunities from the point of view of the risk / return ratio to buy yen.

In case of direct access, as mentioned, the speed of 78.00 can be 15/20 points to downward.

GBP/USD
Situation of increased lateral to the cable, that after the descent is accumulating waiting to see which direction to take. The surfaces to be able to exploit this are trading laterality are passed around 1.5970, with 1.5960 as the point to be assessed in case of breakage bearish that could reach at 1.5935, while between 1.6025 and 1.6050 pass the resistors and the average static to 100 periods exponential. In case of his failure we do not expect climbs over 1.6075.

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar has managed to break the resistance of 1.0230, reaching two goals reported on 1.0250 and 1.0275. There are now other levels through strong resistance between 1.0275 and 1.0300 which can provide excellent opportunities for the sale of Australian dollar. Our team is taking into account the opportunity to attend a False breakage of the asset at 03 figure, a crack that could become permanent over ¼ 1:03.

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